Procrastiblog

PA-6 has been called for Jim Gerlach. That gives me an 0-3 record doing GOTV at the federal level. Boo.

How is it that the Democrats can pick up almost 30 seats in the House and lose in moderate districts in PA and CT? I mean, arithmetically, is that possible?

It’s like Christmas and Halloween are giving me a massage and the crystal meth is just kicking in… Rumsfeld resigned!?! Somebody in the vicinity of the White House is aware of and responsive to objective reality?!? Oh, brave new world!

First bill out of the House: Nancy Pelosi gets to kick George Bush in the balls! On national television!

My favorite part of all of this is seeing Rick Santorum, that frothy mixture of lube and fecal matter posing as a U.S. Senator, get his ass handed to him.

My second favorite part is that, even if he ends up winning—which we apparently won’t know for sure until December—George Allen, my bete noir, has had his presidential aspirations dashed. (If a Republican can’t win by more than a few hundred votes in Virginia, he can’t win the presidency. Sorry, sucker.)

Don’t screw this up. Be the party of competence.* You’ve got to be more Catholic than the Pope (I’m not sure who the Pope is in this metaphor): pass a balanced budget without egregiously raising taxes, don’t climb into bed with the lobbyists, and forgo earmarks for at least one election cycle. And please just sit out the culture wars: show people you can engage the real issues directly, without throwing red meat to your base.

Good luck! I love you! (For now!)

* I don’t mean run as the Party of Competence (*cough* Dukakis)—just be the party of competence.

Can we all now admit that Karl Rove is not a genius? The Republicans’ strategy for this election was: (a) try to convince the average voter that the economy and Iraq are both fine, (b) if that fails, slime the opponent with negative ads and robocalls, and (c) if that fails, suppress and/or steal the vote. If the voters believe that your party’s governing philosophy is basically sound, this can work (see: 2004); if the voters are convinced that your party’s leaders are incompetent and out of touch… Bzzt.

Good for you, America!

My record on volunteering is decidedly mixed. Andrea Stewart-Cousins, a candidate for New York State Senate in Westchester who I volunteered for kind of by accident, won her race by a nose. Lois Murphy in Pennsylvania’s 6th is down by about 3,000 votes as of this writing but the race hasn’t been called. (Presumably, they will look at the absentee ballots.) [CORRECTION: I originally mistook Lois Murphy for Patrick Murphy and reported the results for Pennsylvania’s 8th district: Murphy up by about 1,500 votes. Right now it looks like the Dems will pick up the 8th and fall short on the 6th. Fingers crossed.] Diane Farrell in Connecticutt’s 4th is down by about 4,000 votes with 93% of precincts reporting; the race has been called for Chris Shays. You can add these to my 2004 record working for America Coming Together in Independence, MO: John Kerry lost Missouri by about 200,000 votes. (But he did win Jackson County!)

Maybe I’m a jinx. Or maybe this GOTV stuff doesn’t really work. Seeing it up close, it’s hard to believe that it does: the lists are sloppy, the voters are jaded, and the numbers don’t really work out. Yesterday, I probably visited 100-150 households with 200-250 voters. There were a few dozen volunteers like me, meaning we contacted a few thousand voters. If, say, 5% of them voted when they otherwise wouldn’t have then we produced a few hundred extra votes in an election where nearly 200,000 votes were cast.

I don’t know if the Republican’s have some magical better way of doing things (maybe it looks something like this)—I know the Democratic volunteers are convinced they do. (But the Democratic volunteers are convinced that the Republicans stole the last three elections, murdered Paul Wellstone, and have better snacks.) Clearly, the Republicans turn-out machine is not so magical that it can completely subvert the popular will (which is essentially what Karl Rove was trying to convince us of, up to and including yesterday).

Weirdest voter reaction from CT-4: “We’re not voting for Diane Farrell. We have friends!”